Benchmarking Junior Tennis Stats pt 2

At Next Level Stats, we were upgrading the more than 150 player benchmarks we use to give junior players better context for their match stats, and I noticed a few interesting trends in the data. Here are some of the areas that stand out for lower level-players as they move from UTR 4.5 to 11+.

SERVE ACCURACY

In addition to the patterns in non-professional depth of serve, first and second serve percentages increase reliably as skill level increases. First serves “in” increase from around 79% at the UTR 4.5-6.5 level to 85% at the UTR 11-13+ level, and first serves won from 53% to more than 57%. Second serves "in" similarly increase.

I had to check this a few times because I found it hard to believe compared to the lower "in" percentages we're used to seeing in professional matches. In the Indian Wells men’s final, for example, Medvedev had a relatively lousy day with 55% “in” and 77% won, while Sinner served 65% “in” and 91% won (just, wow).

But that only really tells you how much more difficult it is to serve and return a ball moving 130mph. Looking at a typical women’s ITF matches, those stats are closer to our recreational players–in the 70-75% “in” range and 52-55% won. The top pros are just much, much, much better (which is exactly the reason to do this sort of benchmarking exercise).

NEXT UP: What doesn't seem to matter at all for player development....