Benchmarking Junior Tennis Stats pt 1

At Next Level Stats, we were upgrading the more than 150 player benchmarks we use to give junior players better context for their match stats, and I noticed a few interesting trends in the data. 

In an early version, we ran around 30 of these stats for women’s ITA matches to use as a benchmark for non-professional players. But with a much more detailed and comparable database of over 1,500 matches now available, including being able to differentiate by UTR rating and sex, this promises to be a major upgrade to NLS services. Using a curve-fitting regression model, here are some of the areas that stand out for lower level-players as they move from UTR 4.5 to 11+.

DEPTH

Shot depth matters A LOT as you move from lower skilled to higher skilled matches. No kidding, right? But seriously, more than you might expect. For both the forehand and backhand sides, the percentage of shots that are hit “deep” or “very deep” surge. For example, backhands hit deep (in the front half of no-man’s-land) increase from around 28% to nearly 40% and “very deep” from 20% to 28%. Backhands hit into the net decline in kind, from 13% to less than 8%. Forehands trends are almost identical.

First and second serves show a similar pattern. First serves hit “very deep” (less than 2.5 feet from the service line) increase from around 17% to 24% of all first serves, while those hit into the net decrease from 21% to nearly 15%. Second serves hit “deep” (farther than 2.5 feet but closer than 5 feet) show similar improvements. One of the strongest detectable patterns is on serve speed where speed increases by 44% from the lowest skill level to the highest.

NEXT UP: When does serving win you points....