The (Economic) Lives of College Tennis Players

What Gauriot et al. Found in Professional Tennis

When researchers analyzed nearly 500,000 professional tennis serves, they discovered something remarkable: professionals (especially the men with more dominant serves) played almost perfectly according to game theory in economics. Specifically, they served both to the left and right side of the returner often enough that they equalized their probabilities of winning the point on either side.

From Gauriot, Page and Wooders (2023)

What We're Seeing in College Tennis

Thanks to an incredible dataset made available through SwingVision that includes real world data from hundreds of recreational and college tennis matches, Next Level Stats compared how Division 1 players stack up against the pros. And the results are fascinating.

Not surprisingly, the overall probability of a D1 player winning a first or second service point was less than the pros, especially for the harder men’s serves. But Next Level Stats’ analysis reveals that both men’s and women’s D1 players show the same remarkable ability to balance winning percentages serving to the left and right–and conformity to game theory play. As you can see, they come within a few percentage points of each other for most serves. 

Analysis by Next Level Stats using data from SwingVision

D1 women showed some signs that they could improve left/right distribution on second serves given their strong penchant for serving wide (to a returner’s left) on the ad court. While men, paradoxically actually serve wide on the ad court even more often but have a higher win percentage anyway…double standards abound).

Why This Matters for College Players

Our research unlocks awesome insights that SwingVision’s technology and database make possible for the college tennis community. If you're a college player, understanding that your serve placement strategy can be just as important as your technique is interesting. But putting a winning percentage on it can be eye opening.

The data suggests college players might benefit from explicit training in randomization strategies. Rather than just drilling serve placement, coaches can track if players are being predictable.

Do you know your win probabilities serving to both corners?